My Oscar picks 2015

'To start with the most hotly contested categories first. Best Picture is as close a race as can be between Birdman and Boyhood, two Davids in a field with no Goliaths. Birdman won all the guilds, Boyhood the BAFTAs. The Academy’s preferential ballot would seem to favor the more mild-mannered Linklater but its slightly fey, gentle spirit has always struck me as unlikely to close the deal with the steak-eaters, or Braveheart voters. Gun to head, I’m going to go with Birdman riding the same you-don’t-have-to-be-mad-to-work-here-etc spirit that helped Bob Fosse’s All That Jazz to its wins, making this the third best picture winner in a row set in the world of show business, after Argo and The Artist. Birdman is out there for the Academy, no question, but in the absence of any film addressing the state-of-the-nation or the way-we-live-now, maybe they’ll settle for a baring-of-the-showbiz-soul.   

Best Editing is usually a handmaiden of Best Picture but Birdman doesn't have a nomination — all those long, continuous takes were judged to have assembled themselves — so I expect it to go to Boyhood (and if it goes to the much-admired Whiplash instead, you can definitely count Boyhood out of the running for Best Picture).  Iñárritu will probably pick up the Best Director Oscar for Birdman, clearly a bravura directorial feat, as Gravity was last year.  The Mexicans seem to be owning this award at the moment, as they do cinematography: expect another win for Emmanuel Lubezki. And while one would normally favor Birdman’s Michael Keaton, too, for Best Actor — the academy have a having of siding with American veterans in any run-off with outsiders — Eddie Redmayne’s mixture of craft and emotion in The Theory of Everything gives him the edge. Just.' 

My picks for Intelligent Life:—

BEST FILM

Will Win: Birdman

Could Win: Boyhood

Should Win: Birdman

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu

Could Win: Richard Linklater

Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win:  Julianne Moore

Could Win: —*

Should Win: Marion Cotillard

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne

Could Win: Michael Keaton

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win:  J K Simmons

Could Win: —

Should Win: J K Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Patricia Arquette

Could Win:—

Should Win: Meryl Streep

BEST EDITING

Will Win: Boyhood

Could Win: Whiplash

Should Win: Whiplash

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Birdman

Could Win:—

Should Win: Birdman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Imitation Game

Could Win: Whiplash

Should Win Whiplash

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Boyhood

Should Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Into The Woods

Should Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Into The Woods

Should Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST SCORE

Will Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: The Theory Of Everything

Should Win: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST SONG

Will Win: Selma

Could Win: —

Should Win: Selma

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: American Sniper

Could Win: Interstellar

Should Win: Interstellar

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: American Sniper

Could Win: Whiplash

Should Win: Whiplash

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Will Win: Citizenfour

Could Win: Virunga

Should Win: Last Days in Vietnam

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Ida

Could Win: Leviathan

Should Win: Leviathan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Could Win: Big Hero Six

Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Interstellar

Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Should Win: Interstellar

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR

Will Win:  Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Should Win: Foxcatcher

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: The Phone Call

Could Win: Our Curse

Should Win: Our Curse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Feast

Could Win: The Dam Keeper

Should Win: The Dam Keeper

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Could Win: Joanna

Should Win: Our Curse

*— indicates a lock, meaning a win for someone else would constitute that rarest and loveliest of creatures, an Oscar Upset